TMS Insights April 2026: Investing at extreme fear
Fund managers are holding their highest cash in years, short positioning is at its highest since 2021, and the fear index reads extreme. In this episode of TMS Insights, Ben and Jeremy look at what pessimism this deep has historically meant for returns.
In this episode:
- Week five of the Iran conflict keeps markets on edge, but corporate bond spreads stay tight and liquidity, the thing that matters most, holds firm.
- Amazon and Microsoft trade on sub 20 PEs, multiples some of these companies have rarely if ever traded on, with no earnings issues behind the falls.
- Soul Patts builds $470 million in cash and Berkshire sits at record levels, a look at how two great investment companies behave in volatile markets.
- Warren Buffett laments selling Apple too early while Berkshire becomes one of Google's largest shareholders.
- And consensus tips 15.5% earnings growth for the S&P 500 against a 50 year average of 9%, with a stronger Aussie dollar making US assets the most affordable they've been in some time.
Companies discussed: Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA).
If you'd like a conversation about how your portfolio is positioned, or a second opinion, our team is always happy to talk.
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